What is an Impact Score and how is it calculated?

The Impact Score is the core of Oath’s model. Our proprietary algorithm analyzes thousands of races across dozens of data points to rate the relative value of your donation in each race.

The higher the Impact Score, on a scale of 0 to 10, the greater the value of your donation in that race.

Our Impact Score is calculated across three metrics:

1. Competitiveness: Additional funding is most effective in the closest races, where a small number of votes could change the outcome. Oath uses polling, expert ratings, historic trends, and other election forecasting methods to rate how competitive each race is likely to be.

2. Financial Need: Money can increase the probability of victory, but only up to a point. Oath projects the optimal budget for each race using media market data, past fundraising, opponents’ fundraising, and outside spending to evaluate whether more funding is likely to help.

3. Stakes: Every vote matters, but turning out additional voters in some races carries more weight than others. Oath rates highly any race that could determine Democratic control of an entire chamber (a tipping-point seat) or where one voter may decide multiple close elections on their ballot (a nested race).